流动人口初次流动的空间类型选择及其影响因素——基于福建省的调查研究

The Choices of the Destination's Spatial Types in the Floating Population's First-time Migration and Their Determinants: Case Studies of Fujian Province

利用福建省近3 000名流动人口的流动史数据,采用多项分类Logistic回归分析方法,从社会性别差异视角对其初次流动的空间分布格局、空间类型选择及其影响因素进行了实证分析。研究发现,流动人口的初次流动存在着明显的空间选择集聚特征,其个体的空间类型选择不仅体现了人力资本的遴选效应和家庭决策的结果,同时社会网络、制度背景和社区环境也对其空间选择具有重要影响。此外,相对于男性流动人口,女性流动人口空间分布格局的集聚特征更为明显,且其空间类型选择更加受到家庭的羁绊和制度的约束。

Based on the individual-level event-history data from a random sampling questionnaire survey of 2 977 migrants in Fujian Provinces in 2009, this article examines patterns of the floating population′s spatial distribution, their choices of the spatial types of their destinations, and factors determining such choices, in their first-time migration, from a gender perspective, and using the multinomial logistic regression model. The results show that patterns of the floating population′s spatial distribution and their choices of the spatial types of their destinations in their first-time migration exhibit strong tendency of spatial clustering, and are rather close to the average spatial patterns and choices of member of the floating population at different migration stages, which have been revealed by existing studies based on aggregate migration data. In fact, such patterns and choices establish the basis for the spatial distribution and destination choices of the floating population at their later migration stages. However, the results also demonstrate that not all members of the floating population will experience a one-step migration process, and that some of them will move to other destinations, or return to the places of origin, leading to the fact that the floating population′s spatial distribution and choices of the spatial types of their destinations at later migration stages are often at variance with those in their first-time migration. The results further suggest that the floating population′s choices of the spatial types of their destinations in their first-time migration are not only the combined effects of their human capital selection mechanism and their family decisions, but also affected by other factors, including the floating population′s social networks, their community environment, and the general institutional context. It is particularly noteworthy that the characteristics of sending areas and families, and the status of the floating population′s families in the communities, which are often neglected in the existing migration research, stand out in the floating population′s choices of the spatial types of their destinations in their first-time migration. Compared to male members of the floating population, there is a stronger tendency for spatial clustering of female members of the floating population in their first-time migration, who are also more likely to reach the current destinations by a one-step process. While equally affected by human capital selection mechanism, social networks, and community environment, as with their male counterparts, the choices of the spatial types of destinations for female members of the floating population are more constrained by family- and institutional-related factors.