利用FLEXPART模式反演中国区域SF_6排放量

Estimating emission of SF_6 in China by atmospheric observation data and inverse modeling

六氟化硫（SF6）是一种长寿命卤代温室气体,被列为《京都议定书》限排物种.随着经济高速发展,中国的SF6排放量受到世界各国的关注.采用传统的＂自下而上＂清单方法估算SF6排放量时,所需排放因子、活动水平数据的准确性和时效性存在较大局限.因此,本文利用拉格朗日粒子扩散模式FLEXPART,结合2009年北京上甸子区域大气本底站SF6浓度观测资料,尝试建立中国区域SF6排放量的反演方法.结果表明,初步反演的2009年中国区域SF6排放量为1.25×103（0.53×1031.97×103）t·a-1,与文献结果相当,源排放量的不确定性从1.05×103t·a-1减小到0.72×103t·a-1.与先验源相比,反演源的相关系数从0.37提高到0.43,均方根误差减小了2.64%.

SF6 is one of long-lived halogenated greenhouse gases and listed as the restricted emission species in＂Kyoto Protocol＂. Along with the rapid economic development,SF6 emission in China is attracted more attention in the world. For the traditional ＂bottom-up＂ method for SF6 emission estimation,the requirements for high accurate and timely updated emission factors and activity data cause many problems for the use of this method. This paper presents the results on the estimation of SF6 emissions in China for the year 2009 by using the Laprange particle dispersion model of FLEXPART,based on the in-situ measurement data obtained from the Shangdianzi regional atomspheric background station （SDZ）. The a-posteriori estimations of SF6 emissions in China for the year 2009 is 1. 25 × 103（0. 53×103 1. 97 × 103） t·a-1,which is similar to the results reported by other studies in the literatures. Compared to results with the a-priori emission,the results with the inversion emissions improved with the correlation coefficient increase from 0. 37 to 0. 43 and the root-mean-square（RMS） decrease by 2. 64%.