佳木斯市近60年降水量演变规律分析

Variation rule of precipitation in Jiamusi City in recent 60 years

以三江平原腹地典型城市——佳木斯市1953年-2013年降水量统计数据为基础,采用小波变化理论、MannKendall趋势检验法,分析了佳木斯市近60年降水量的演变规律。结果表明:佳木斯市年降水量存在25a和13a左右的振荡主周期,不同时间尺度上未来年降水量丰枯变化表现出不同的特征;年降水量时间分布十分不均匀,20世纪70年代平均年降水量最小,50年代平均年降水量最大,但60年来总体呈现出微弱的下降趋势,在0.025的显著水平上不显著。研究成果对于指导佳木斯市科学合理的利用降水资源具有一定的指导意义。

Based on the annual precipitation data of Jiamusi City,a typical city in the Sanjiang Plain,from 1953 to 2013,the methods of wavelet change theory and Mann-Kendall trend test were used to analyze the variation rule of precipitation in recent 60 years.The results showed that the precipitation of Jiamusi City in recent 60 years has two oscillation cycles of 25 years and 13 years,and the wet and dry variations of future annual precipitation in different time scales show different characteristics;precipitation has uneven distribution in temporal scale with the least precipitation in 1970's while the most in 1950's,and the annual precipitation in recent 60 years has shown a slightly decline trend but is insignificant at the 0.025 level of significance.The research has certain significance for guiding the rational and scientific use of precipitation resources in Jiamusi City.