丹江口水库入库径流特征及其演变规律

Inflow runoff in the Danjiangkou Reservoir and its evolution

为了能够更好地进行中长期径流预报，对1965年-2013年的丹江口水库月平均入库流量进行径流特性分析。首先采用线性回归法和M ailli-Kendall检验法进行趋势分析，然后采用Pettitt突变检验法、Morlet小波法分别进行突变分析与周期分析。结果表明，1965年-2013年间丹江口径流量呈下降趋势，并且分别存在3～5 a,7～9 a、18～20 a的显著周期性。建议进行中长期年径流预报时采用7 a或其倍数年做建模数据序列，同时由于年径流与最大洪峰流量的突变点均为1986年，所以尽量避开1986年，以免影响预报精度。

In order to better predict the long-term runoff,the average monthly inflow runoff in the Danjiangkou Reservoir from1965 to 2013were analyzed.The trend analysis was performed using the linear regression and Mann-Kendall test methods,the mutation analysis was performed using the Pettitt mutation test method,and the cycle analysis was performed using the Morlet wavelet method.The results showed that the inflow runoff in the Danjiangkou Reservoir has a decline trend from 1965 to 2013,and significant periodicity of 3~5,7~9,and 18~20years exists.The mutation point of annual runoff and maximum peak flow occurred in 1986;therefore,the data of 1986 are better avoided in order to ensure the prediction accuracy in the long-term annual runoff prediction.Moreover,the modeling data series of 7years or its multiple are suggested to be applied in the long-term annual runoff prediction.