新疆旅游人数的影响因素研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

The Impacting Factors of Tourist Number of Xinjiang:An Empirical Analysis Based on the VAR Model

以新疆1995—2012年的数据为研究样本建立VAR模型,来分析新疆旅游人数、国内生产总值、人均工资和运输里程之间的内在关系。实证结果表明:新疆旅游人数、GDP、人均工资和运输里程之间存在着长期均衡关系;GDP、人均工资、运输里程均对旅游人数呈现正向影响,但运输里程的影响幅度不大;影响旅游人数的各因素的重要程度依次为GDP、人均工资、运输里程。因此,新疆旅游业的发展应针对游客的旅游需求,适时的调整相关的旅游政策。同时,要下大力气完善旅游交通设施建设,有效缩短旅游距离,吸引更多的游客在疆或来疆开展旅游活动,不断提升新疆旅游业的整体发展层次。

Based on the sample data of 1995—2012 in Xinjiang, this paper builds the VAR model and analyzes the inter-nal relationship among the tourist number, gross domestic product （GDP）, per capita wage and transport mileage. The empirical results show that： The tourist number of Xinjiang , GDP, per capita wages and transport mileage have a long-term equilibrium relationship;GDP, per capita wages, transport mileage show a positive effect to the tourist num-ber, although the influence of transport mileage is only with a small margin;The relative importance of the influence fac-tors in descending order are GDP, per capita wages and transport mileage. Based on the above results, this paper points out that due attention should be paid to tourists demand and timely policy adjustment in order to develop the tourism in-dustry in Xinjiang. At the same time, the traffic facilities should be improved to effectively shorten the travel distance, with the purpose of attracting more tourists and improving the overall level of tourism development in Xinjiang.