济南2010年8月13～14日暴雨过程分析

Analysis on Rainstorm Process in Jinan during August 13-14,2010

综合利用常规资料、NCEP再分析资料分析了2010年8月13 ～ 14日济南市暴雨天气过程的成因及中尺度特征.结果表明,此次天气过程是西太平洋副热带高压边缘西南暖湿气流、西风浅槽和后期北方冷空气的共同影响的结果;前期以两高之间的纬向切变线影响天气阴沉以阵性局地强降水为主;中期低层出现涡旋自西南向东北沿黄河进入渤海湾产生影响,降水强度比较大;后期高空500 hPa低槽滞后冷空气跟下来产生影响,强降水出现在850 hPa西南涡进入山东后有北部冷空气加入“参与”这个时段;因此,夏季预报强降水时首先要分析考虑有没有中小尺度系统出现,是预报强降水依据中的首选.

Comprehensive analysis is conducted to investigate the causes of Ji（n）an City rainstorm weather process in August 13-14,2010 by using conventional observation data,NCEP reanalysis data.The weather is caused by comprehensive interact of warm wet air current southwest edge of West Pacific high subtropical,the shallow groove and the later northern cold air.In the earlier stage,local strong precipitation is the main characteristic between the zonal shear line of two high pressure.In the mediate stage,the middle lower layer vortex come from southwest to northeast along the the Yellow River into the Gulf of Bohai,Rainfall intensity is relatively large.The late high 500 hPA low trough is delayed,cold air come into effect.Heavy rainfall occurred in 850 hPA southwest vortex after it entered Shandong northern and cold air enhance the ＂participation＂ in the period of time.Therefore,the summer precipitation forecast should first consider analysis of small scale systems,it is prior selection to forecast of heavy precipitation.