玉米预期价格对农户种植玉米的影响——基于吉、黑两省玉米种植户的调查研究

Effect of Expected Price on Farmers' Corn Planting Decision-Based on the Survey of Corn Farmers in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces

根据吉林、黑龙江两省玉米种植户的调研结果,探讨了影响玉米预期价格形成的因素,发现玉米上一年的预期价格、实际价格以及临时收储价格对农户形成当年预期价格起到了主要的参考作用;分析了玉米的预期价格等因素对玉米种植户种植决策的影响,发现玉米预期价格是受访农户扩大或维持玉米种植规模最重要的影响因素,说明通过引导农户形成"合理"的玉米预期价格,从而实现东北地区玉米有序生产的设想仍然具有现实意义。结合我国下一阶段农业发展目标,在研究成果的基础上提出了相关建议和对策:完善现有的临时收储价格政策,使得政策的"隐性"补贴能够更好地同玉米的产量相挂钩,促使农户的种粮积极性和利益得到更切实的保证和保障;加快东北地区农产品价格信息传播渠道的建设和完善工作,向农户介绍并推广获取农产品价格信息的现代技术和方法,从而为农户形成合理的玉米预期价格提供基础性帮助。

Based on the survey of 340 corn farmers in Jinlin and Heilongjiang provinces,we studythe factors influencing the formation of corn expected price,finding that expected price,actual priceand supporting price of the previous year are the key ones. We analyze how factors,such as corn ex？pected price,affect farmers′ planting decision,learning that expected price still plays the largestrole in guiding farmers planting corn nowadays. Considering the targets of Chinese agricultural devel？opment in the next stage,we put forward some proposals to help farmers form expected price andproduce corn orderly in Northeast China. The government should take actions to improve the implica？tion of the supporting policy of corn price by establishing more closed contact between the “invisi？ble” subsidies of the price policy and corn output. Besides,it′s time to accelerate the construction ofprice information channels for agricultural product in Chinese Northeast districts by making it availa？ble for farmers to apply modern mechanics and measures of communication to form expected price ofagricultural product.