丙型肝炎发病与社会经济指标关系的分析

Association of hepatitis C incidence with socio-economic factors in China

目的分析丙型肝炎发病与社会经济因素的关系。方法应用中国大陆地区31个省(自治区、直辖市)2008-2012年发布的社会经济统计数据,挑选出可能与丙型肝炎发病有关的社会经济指标,如人均GDP、每万人口医生数、在岗职工平均工资等。运用面板数据模型(panel data model)分析这些因素与丙型肝炎发病之间的关系,并对模型进行诊断和评价。结果运用面板数据拟合地区和年代固定效应模型,进行多因素分析,结果显示:人均GDP与丙型肝炎发病呈负相关,相关系数为-0.000 03(P<0.01);在岗职工平均工资与丙型肝炎发病呈负相关,相关系数为-0.037 14(P=0.020 4);每万人口医生数与丙型肝炎发病呈负相关,相关系数为-0.000 02(P=0.014 9)。结论社会经济的发展、卫生条件的改善和生活水平的提高对丙型肝炎发病有一定的正影响。

Objective The purpose of this study was to analyze the association of socio-economic factors with hepatitis C incidence in China. Methods Social and economic factors possibely associated with hepatitis C incidence were chosen based on published Chinese socio-economic statistical data of 31 provinces from 2008to2012,such as per capita GDP,number of doctors per ten thousands population,average salary of employees and others.Panel data model was employed to analyze the association of these factors with hepatitis C incidence. Results Multi-factor analysis performed by the panel data model revealved that per capita GDP,average salary of employee,and numer of doctors per 100 000 population were all negatively associated with hepatitis C incidence with the correlation coefficients of-0.000 03（P〈0.01）,-0.037 14（P=0.020 4）and-0.000 02（P=0.014 9）. Conclusions The incidence of hepatis C is closely associated with the overall socioeconomic development,health guarantee and the improvement of living standard.