春节效应对传染病网络直报工作的影响

The impact of the Spring Festival effect on the direct network reporting of communicable diseases

目的通过对2008-2012年1-2月份平顶山市传染病报告病例监测分析,探讨传染病网络直报工作中是否存在着春节效应以及对网络直报工作的影响。方法对2008-2012年1-2月份平顶山市传染病网络直报数据进行描述,对春节效应采用同比分析,发病率的检验采用z检验法。结果 2008-2012年平顶山市传染病春节期间日均报告病例数低于各年全年日均报告病例数,春节所在月份报告发病率低于非春节月份平均报告发病率（z=1.77,P=0.0384）,历年2月份包含春节的传染病平均发病率同比低于往年不包含春节的传染病平均发病率（z=1.85,P=0.0322）。结论平顶山市传染病网络直报工作中存在着春节效应,可使春节所在月份的传染病报告发病率降低,采用移动平均法可在一定程度上解决春节效应对监测数据分析的影响。

Objective To analyze surveillance data of communicable diseases in Pingdingshan city in 2008-2012,investigate whether the Spring Festival effect could influence direct network reporting of communicable diseases .MethodsEpidemiological method was applied to describe the surveillance data of communicable diseases in January and February from2008 to 2012, and yoy analysis was used to analyze the Spring Festival effect, the incidence difference test by z-test. Results The number of cases averagely daily reported infectious diseases cases during the Spring Festival was less than the number of averagely daily reported cases . The reported incidence of the month in the Chinese New Year is lower than the reportedincidence of non-Chinese New Year month（z =1.77, P=0.0384）; The average incidence of the month including Spring Festivalwas lower than the average incidence of the month not including Spring Festival（z=1.85, P=-0.0322）. Conclusion SpringFestival effect exists in the direct network reporting of infectious diseases in Pingdingshan City resulting in the reduction ofreported incidence of infectious diseases and using the moving average method could reduce the spring festival effect on theanalysis of monitored data of communicable disease.