就业路径依赖、失业刚性与中国劳动力市场波动

Employment Path Dependence,Unemployment Rigidity and Volatility of China's Labor Market

基于包含劳动力市场的搜寻与匹配的新凯恩斯主义货币政策动态随机一般均衡模型,考察就业路径依赖与失业刚性对中国劳动力市场波动的影响。外生冲击的脉冲响应函数表明,就业路径依赖与失业刚性使得失业表现出缓慢调整的特征,并且就业路径依赖与失业刚性可以解释新凯恩斯主义模型中的"通胀之谜"。基于失业条件方差分解的结果发现,就业路径依赖与失业刚性可以解释中国劳动力市场的"失业回滞"现象。而进一步的敏感度分析则发现,就业路径依赖与失业刚性对于失业的超调性、波动性及持续性均具有重要的影响。

With a new Keynesian monetary policy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including searching and matching of labor market, this paper investigates the effect of employment path dependence and unemployment rigidity on the volatility of China＇s labor market. The impulse response function shows that there is a slow recovery character of unemployment, and employment path dependence and unemployment rigidity may be helpful to explain the paradox of inflation. The conditional variance decomposition of unemployment shows that employment path dependence and unemployment rigidity would be useful for interpretation of hysteresis in unemployment. Furthermore, the result of robustness analysis finds that the higher of employment path dependence and unemployment rigidity, the stronger over-shooting, volatility and persistence of unemployment.