制造业出口技术结构变迁影响出口不稳定性的实证研究

An Empirical Research about Effect of Manufacturing Export Technical Structure on Export Instability

在分析出口技术结构影响出口不稳定性机制的基础上,测算1999—2011年OECD国家及其主要贸易伙伴国的出口不稳定性指数和制造业出口技术水平,利用系统GMM方法,实证研究出口技术结构对出口不稳定性的影响。结果显示,出口技术水平上升在一定程度上抑制了出口不稳定性,地理集中度、附加值、初级产品出口占比、出口市场份额、税率等也表现出同样的作用,而外商直接投资净流入额和商品集中度却产生正向的影响效应。因此,加大研发投入,提升出口品技术含量,实施出口多元化战略,有利于促进出口稳定性。

This article introduces the mechanism about the effect of export technical structure on export instability, and calculates export instability index and export sophistication of manufactures for OECD countries from 1999 to 2011. Combining with system GMM method, this article empirically analyzes the effects of export sophistication on export instability. Empirical results show that export sophistication exerts a significant inhibition on the export instability. Simultaneously, geographic concentration, value - added and market share also show the same effect, while net inflows of foreign direct investment and trade concentration show a positive effect. Therefore, to increase the investment of research, to improve export sophistication and to implement export diversification strategy are beneficial to promote export stability,