摘要
根据债务审计数据,在对地方政府债务发展态势与结构及其对区域经济增长作用机理分析的基础上,采用描述性统计方法对地方政府债务与区域经济增长的关系进行检验,结果发现:二者存在明显的正相关,这意味着政府举债对促进区域经济的增长产生了积极作用;随着负债率的提高,区域经济增长速度也在加快,但增长速度具有收敛性特征。这表明地方政府债务还未触及债务阈值,但仍需要警惕与防范债务风险,在控制地方政府债务增长的同时,需要考虑区域经济的均衡发展。
Based on the analysis about development situation of local government debt and structure and the mechanism of which its effect on regional economic growth, with debt figures released by the national audit office, this paper tests the relationship between local government debt and regional economic growth by descriptive statistical methods. The results show obvious positive correlation between local government debt and regional economic growth, which means that government borrowing has a positive effect to promote regional economic growth. And with the increase of debt ratio, regional economic grow faster, but the growth has the characteristics of convergence. These results suggest that local government debt does not hit the debt threshold, but the debt risk need to be vigilant and kept away, balanced development of regional economy need to be considered when controlling the growth of local government debt.
出处
《财贸研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期114-121,共8页
Finance and Trade Research
基金
湖南省科技厅软科学项目“经济增长视角下湖南省市级地方政府债务问题及对策研究”(2014ZK3026)
湖南省情与决策咨询研究项目“湖南地方政府债务监管研究”(2014ZZ069)
关键词
地方政府债务
区域经济增长
债务阈值
local government debt
regional economic growth
debt threshold
