经济增长视角下的中国劳动力数量与结构变化

China＇s labor force and structural changes under economic growth

我国劳动年龄人口（15-59岁）已经在2012年呈现负增长，劳动力（20-59岁）数量也将从2016年开始下降，2022年开始，我国劳动力数量则会快速下降。目前劳动供给紧平衡，农村向城镇转移劳动力速度放缓，工资快速上涨，求人倍率连续三年大于1。伴随我国劳动力数量下降，劳动市场将供小于求，影响我国经济增长。文章建议，一方面要提高劳动参与率，降低经济对劳动力数量的依赖，另一方面要提高劳动效率，采取有效措施促进农村就业人口向城镇转移，减少结构性就业矛盾。

The working-age population （aged 15~59） in China showed a negative growth in 2012, the labor force （aged 20-59） would be falling from 2016. From 2022, there would be a sharp decrease in labor force. At present, there remains a tight balance in labor demand and supply, the shift of labor force from rural areas to cities slows down with a rapid rise in wages, the job vacancies-to-seekers ratio has been greater than 1 for three consecutive years. Along with the drop in China＇s labor force, the supply in labor market will be less than demand, which will affect the economic growth. The article gives advice on raising labor participation rate to reduce the reliance of economy on labor force on the one hand, and on the other hand, increasing labor efficiency through adopting effective measures to promote the transfer of labor force in rural areas to cities, thereby reducing the inconsistency of structural employment.