干旱区绿洲城市发展与水资源需求预警分析——以乌鲁木齐市为例

Scenario Warning for Urban Development and Water Resource Demand in the Arid Oasis City of Urumqi

基于乌鲁木齐市城市发展与水资源开发利用历史数据,采用系统动力学方法,构建干旱区绿洲城市发展与水资源需求预警系统仿真模型,并对乌鲁木齐市城市发展的水资源需求进行多情景模拟。模拟结果显示:①现有水资源条件难以满足城市发展的需要,各情景下水资源对城市发展系统均存在较强约束,采用调水与节水方案,乌鲁木齐市中、高速发展情景下到2030年将分别存在5.17亿m3、30.15亿m3的水资源缺口;②节水方案对水资源开发利用潜力提高的效果远大于调水的效果,社会经济发展越快,节水带来的效果越明显;③适度增强城市人口和产业的集聚与规模效应,降低用水定额,提高水资源利用效率,是提高水资源开发利用潜力最有效的途径;④通过跨流域调水提高区域的供水能力,有助于减弱水资源系统对城市发展系统的约束作用。

Water resource scarcity influences economic and social development, and the relationship between urban development and water resources are closer in arid areas such as northwest China. In this study, the typical arid oasis city of Urumqi in Xinjiang province was selected as a case study. Based on urban development and water resource system data, a warning analysis model was built using the program Vensim, and different scenarios for urban development, water supply and water consumption were established. We found that differences in water consumption were mainly affected by urban development and water consumption, differences in total water supply were affected by water supply scenarios, and both these affected the balance of water supply and demand. Water resources were strained to meet the demand of urban development, and had a strong constraint on urban development in various scenarios. Under scenarios of inter-basin water transfer and water-saving consumption, the water shortage in 2030 will be 5.17 × 108m^3 and 30.15 × 108m^3 respectively under middle and high urban development scenarios. Water conservation programs played a bigger role than inter-basin water transfer programs on improving the water resource potential, and the higher the urban development the more obvious the effects. Expanding the city scale appropriately and accelerating the concentration of population and industries will improve water use efficiency. Improving the capacity of water supply through inter-basin water transfer will weaken the constraint intensity of water resources on urban development.