广州地区人为热释放的日变化和年际变化估算

Diurnal and Annual Variations of Anthropogenic Heat Estimation in Guangzhou City, China

基于《广州市统计年鉴》2001～2012年数据估算了广州2000～2011年人为热释放的日变化以及年际变化，计算中考虑了人类新陈代谢、工业、交通以及生活排放人为热。计算结果显示：4种排放源中工业12年平均达到了55％，交通达到36％，其次依次为生活排放和新陈代谢排放。总的人为热在这12年时间里大致呈现上升的趋势，从2000年的2.7×10^17J增加到2011年的4.4×10^17J，但在2006年后有小幅的下降，这主要是由于工业释放是人为热释放的主要部分，在2006年后工业能源效率有所提高以致能源消耗排放率下降造成的。日变化在10：00（北京时间，下同）和14：00达到最大，并且12年间随时间的推移日变化呈现出下降的趋势，主要是由于城市化进程的速度远远快于能源消耗、人口和车辆保有量增加的速度。对比WRF模式中城市模块中的人为热释放的日变化系数，这些原始系数在广州使用的误差主要与广州地区和西方国家的生产生活作息时间有关。

Considering the anthropogenic heat （AH） flux sources from human metabolism and activity, factories, vehicular traffic, this work has estimated the diurnal and annual variations of AH flux in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2011 using 2001–2012 data obtained from the Statistics Annals of Guangzhou. The results show that the averaged AH flux of factories and vehicular traffic accounts for 55% and 36%, respectively. The AH flux value shows an increasing trend during the 12-year period from 2.7×10^17J to 4.4×10^17J, with an exception after 2006 when the value presents a slight decline. This result can be attributed to a higher energy efficiency leading to a lower emission rate of energy consumption as manufactories are the major source of AH flux. The peak values of diurnal variation is shown to occur at 1000 LST and 1400 LST. During the 12-year period, the overall diurnal variation shows a decreased trend, which can be attributed mainly to a faster pace of urbanization than the increasing rate of energy consumption, population, and vehicles. Compared with the diurnal variation parameters of AH flux in the urban module of the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model, this discrepancy is closely related to discrepancies in work and life span between Guangzhou and cities in western countries.