不同时空尺度下中国旅游业发展格局演化

Spatial Pattern of Chinese Tourism Development Based on Different Spatio-temporal Scales

以中国（不包括港、澳、台地区）省、市域1996~2010年旅游发展的面板数据为例,运用ESDA、重心、标准差椭圆等分析技术,对原始数据进行空间分析,结合脉冲响应函数,分析空间演化的影响因素作用。结果表明：1996~2010年总体上省域旅游经济表现出随机分布的空间态势,空间差异有所缩小,其中东部旅游业发展差异最大,中部最小。中国省域旅游经济重心向西北发生偏移,长三角及周边地区为中国旅游经济的扩散效应区,广大西部地区是旅游经济的低速增长区。中国市域旅游经济的高值区大致分布在＂黑河-腾冲＂线的右侧,主要集聚在四大板块,与省域旅游经济的空间差异相比,市域旅游经济空间差异更加显著。区域旅游资源禀赋以及社会经济因素是影响空间差异的两大因素,区域发展客观规律与政府的政策制度,对区域旅游发展差异有重大的影响,特殊事件对原有格局会产生一定的冲击,但不能从总体上改变空间差异的格局。

By taking the panel data in Chinese mainland from 1996 to 2010 for an example, this article uses the methods of ESDA, gravity center and standard deviation ellipse to analyze the spatial differences of tourism de- velopment in 31 regions of China. Finally, along with the impulse response function, it proposes the influences mechanism of spatial evolution. The results show that, the provincial tourism economy generally performances a random spatial distribution situation and the spatial differences have narrowed from 1996 to 2010. The differ- ences of tourism development in the east of China are the largest, and differences of the middle of China are the smallest. The gravity center of Chinese provincial tourism has shifted to the northwest, the High-High dis- trict totally concentrated in Changjiang River Delta and its surroundings, the Low-Low district totally concen- trated in the west of Chinese. The high-value areas of city tourism economy are broadly distributed in the right of line ＇Heihe-Tengchong＇, mainly concentrated in 4 groups： 1） Bohai economic circle, including Beijing, Tianjin, Liaodong peninsula and Shandong peninsula, 2） the Changjiang River Delta economic circle and its surroundings, 3） the Zhujiang River Delta, Hainan island and its surroundings, 4） the Chengdu-Chongqing eco- nomic circle and its surroundings. It can be founded by comparative analysis in different spatio-temporal scale that the Changjiang River Delta, the Zhujiang River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin area and the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle as well as its surroundings are the four most developed areas of Chinese tourism economy. From 1996 to 2010, the mainland＇ s tourism economy has been significantly improved, and generally shows a random spatial distribution. The difference of provincial tourism development totally has decreased, but that of cities has increased more significantly. Regional tourism resources and socio-economic factors are the two ma- jor factors to influence the spatial differences of tourism economy, and the objective rule and policy and institu- tion also have a great impact on regional tourism development differences. Special events may have a certain impact on the pattern of the original; however, it cannot change the spatial pattern completely. This article only selects the time section from 1996 to 2010, other times whether like this or not still needs further study, but this research is consistent with the actual situation. Long time and multiple indexes are still a direction in the future research of spatial differences about tourism economy. It employs the qualitative and quantitative methods to analyze the mechanism of spatial differences of tourism economy, but how to quantity these factors, such as policy, institution, traffic mode et al, and how to reveal the depth impact mechanism are still need further ex- ploring.