手足口病及聚集发病与气温关系

Association of atmospheric temperature with incidence trend and cluster of hand,foot and mouth disease

目的 探讨山东省莱芜市2011—2013年手足口病发病变化趋势与气温的关系,为手足口病防控提供参考依据。方法 对莱芜市2011—2013年手足口病发病及聚集疫情和气温资料进行相关及回归分析。结果 月均发病数与平均温度、最低温度、最高温度呈正相关,r分别为0.579 6、0.798 9、0.600 2（均P〈0.01）;月均气温与月均聚集疫情发生起数呈正相关（r=0.762 7,95%CI=0.335 7~0.929 7,P=0.003 9）;月均气温与对数变换后的月均聚集疫情起数呈正相关（r=0.929 1,95%CI=0.760 8~0.803,P〈0.000 1）。结论 通过气温变化可以对手足口病发病及聚集性疫情进行预测。

Objective To investigate the relationship between the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） and atmospheric temperature in Laiwu city during the period of 2011 to 2013 and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Data on HFMD epidemics and atmospheric temperature in Laiwu city from 2011 to 2013 were collected and analyzed with correlation regression. Results The average monthly incidence of HFMD was positively correlated with average, minimum and maximum atmospheric temperature, with the correlation coefficient（r） of 0. 579 6,0. 798 9, and 0. 600 2 （all P 〈 0. 01 ） ;the average monthly atmospheric temperature was posi- tively correlated with the average monthly number of HFMD cluster epidemic （ r = 0. 762 7,95% confidence interval ~95% CI] ：0. 335 7 -0. 929 7 ,P =0. 003 9） ;after logarithmic transformation,the average monthly number of the cluster HFMD epidemic was positively correlated with monthly average atmospheric temperature （ r = 0. 929 1,95% CI： 0. 760 8 - 0. 803, P 〈 0. 000 1 ）, with a regression equation of log （y） = 0. 798 9 ＋ 0. 072 63x. Conclusion Data on atmospheric temperature could be used in the prediction of incidence and cluster epidemic of HFMD.