成都-拉萨所需导航性能(RNP4)平行航路安全性评估研究

Safety Assessment of RNP4 Chengdu-Lasa Parallel Routes

根据中国民航基于性能导航(PBN)实施路线图,2017年后,PBN航路将达到100%。目前,成都-拉萨RNP4平行航路正在协调实施。对成都-拉萨RNP4平行航路的安全评估进行了研究。首先运用改进的REICH模型介绍了平行航路碰撞风险的计算方法。其次,分析了侧向重叠概率的计算方法。侧向重叠概率由一般偏航和大偏航两部分组成。有别于之前的研究,采用更接近于实际运行现状的分离的双指数分布来描述大偏航密度函数。最后对成都-拉萨RNP4平行航路的碰撞风险进行了评估。评估结果满足安全目标水平的要求,也表明该方法是可行的。

According to China＇ s PBN implementation roadmap,PBN based on the instrument flight procedures will be implemented to all ATS routes after 2017.At present,Chengdu-Lasa RNP4 parallel routes is designed.This paper presents the safety assessment for the implementation of Chengdu-Lasa RNP4 parallel routes.Firstly,the methodology of collision risk of parallel routes is introduced by improved REICH model.Then,the method of lateral overlap probability is analyzed.The lateral overlap probability is divided into two parts-the core distribution and the non-core distribution.Unlike the most of previous research,the non-core distribution obey ＂Separated Double Exponential＂ distribution which is more realistic in this paper.Finally,the collision risk of Chengdu-Lasa RNP4 parallel routes is carried out.The estimate of collision risk satisfies the target level of safety value and indicates that the method is feasible.