气候变暖对焉耆盆地绿洲灌区主要作物产量的影响

Effects of Climate Warming on the Yield of Major Crops in the Irrigation Areas of Yanqi Basin Oasis

利用焉耆盆地焉耆县、和静县和和硕县1961-2010年气温资料与玉米、小麦、薯类和棉花产量资料，分析了气候变暖对农业生产的可能影响。结果表明：（1）20世纪60年代以来，焉耆县和和静县多年平均气温、生长季气温和≥10℃积温显著升高，和静县20世纪90年代以来气温呈快速上升趋势，但目前正处于升温平稳且略微下降期；焉耆县目前处于快速升温期。和硕县气温升高否明显。（2）1995-2010年焉耆县、和硕县和和静县小麦产量呈“w”型，玉米产量在2008年后随年代逐年递增，薯类和棉花产量呈单蜂趋势，2007年后显著下降。（3）小麦产量与各气温因子均呈显著的负相关性，棉花产量与各气温因子均呈极显著的正相关性，尤其是作物生长期气温对小麦和棉花产量影响最大。通过对小麦和棉花产量与各气温因子进行回归分析发现，棉花产量与作物生长期气温间的回归方程通过了0．0l的显著性检验，小麦则未通过。（4）作物生长期气温升高延长了棉花生长季，补充了足够的热量，减轻了霜冻对棉花的危害，提高了棉花的产量和品质。气候变暖也带来许多负面影响，例如：气候变暖使得旱灾面积和病虫害受灾面积增大，影响了农业生产。

The study utilized the yield data of corn, wheat, potato and cotton in Yanqi County, Hejing County and Heshuo County in the Yanqi Basin and annual temperature data during 1961-2010 and analyzed the effects of climate warming on agricultural production. The results showed that： （1） Since 1960s, the average annual temperature （AAT）, growing season temperature （GST） and annual accumulated temperature above 10~C （AATAI0） remained relatively stable in Hejing County, but increased significantly in Yanqi County and Hejing County. The overall temperature has risen rapidly in Yanqi County and Hejing County since the 1990s, and currently is still in a rapid warming state in Yanqi County, but in a stably and slightly decreased state in Hejing County; （2） Wheat yield in the three counties showed a ＂W＂ shape during 1995 and 2010, corn yield increased yearly after 2008, potato and cotton yields showed a unimodal trend and significantly decreased after 2007; （3） Wheat yield showed a significant negative correlation with all temperature factors, and cotton yield showed a highly significant positive correlation with all temperature factors, especially GST, which has the greatest impact on wheat and cotton yield. Regression analyses of wheat and cotton yield and temperature factors showed that cotton but not wheat yield had a extremely significant relationship with GST （p〈0.01）; （4） Increased GST prolongs the cotton growth period, provides enough heat, reduces frost-caused damages to cotton and improves cotton yield and quality. By contrary, climate warming has also brought many negative effects, such as enlarged drought- and pest- affected areas, thus affecting agricultural production.