世界船队的船龄分析

An Analysis on the Service Life of the World Fleet

船队的船龄,是进行技术进步、船队更新、航运安全等决策的重要的背景材料。本文分析了世界船队的船龄构成与平均船龄的演变,以及船龄与报废率、灭失率的关系等。从中发现了船龄层次波动的规律,可以提高对世界船队增长,船龄结构与船舶更新数量的预测精度,为我国航运业与造船业参与国际市场竞争,制订相应的技术,提供必要的依据。

The service life of a fleet is the important backgroud data in the deci-sion making of technical progress,renewal of fleet and safety at sea.This paper analyses the evolution of the service life constitution andthe average service life of the world merchant fleet,as welll as the relationbetween ship's service life and demolishment ratio and casualty ratio.Thereby,the regulation of the layer fluctuation of the ships at different ser-vice life is discovered,which provides a higher accuracy in forecasting thestructure,the quantity of renewal and the growth of the world fleet.The paper offers an essential basis which makes the Chinese ship own-ers and shipbuilders more competetitive in the world market and helps theChinese policymaker in compiling technical policy.