基于改进元胞自动机的成都城市扩张仿真模拟

Urban Growth Simulation of Chengdu Based on Improved Cellular Automata

为了改善在高速发展的城镇化带来的中国城市无序蔓延、土地利用不合理、生态环境破坏严重等问题,引导城市朝向更加可持续发展的方向演进,更客观地模拟城市空间发展,基于城市元胞自动机理论,在GIS平台基础上,通过引入居民主体建立了改进的城市空间发展动态模型.模型利用逻辑回归分析方法描述了自然条件因子对城市元胞状态转换的影响度,同时利用梯度函数定义了城市元胞宜居度计算方法,进而设计了城市元胞自动机转化规则.利用成都市1959年及1992年的土地利用数据对模型进行了验证和校准后,对成都市2015和2020年的城市用地状况进行了预测,并据此对成都城市空间未来的发展进行了趋势分析,提出了城市扩张建议.

In order to improve the problem of urban sprawl,unreasonable land use,seriously ecological damage in the process of high-speed developing urbanization in China,to guide cities into more sustainable future,and to simulate the urban dynamic development more objectively,an improved urban spatial dynamic model was built by introducing resident subject on the basis of urban Cellular Automata（CA） theory and platform of GIS.The model described the effects of natural impact factors（IF） on the urban cellular transformation by logical regression analysis and defined the computing method of urban cellular livable degree by gradient method,designed transforming rules for urban CA.The land use data of Chengdu in 1959 and 1992 were used to verify and adjust the model.The land use of Chengdu in 2015 and 2020 was forecasted and hereby the future developing trend of urban spatial development of Chengdu was analyzed.On this basis,advice of urban growth in Chengdu was put forward.