经济政策不确定性、行业周期性与现金持有动态调整

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Industry Periodicity and Dynamic Cash Holdings Adjustment

宏观经济环境及产业特征是影响微观企业财务政策的重要因素。基于我国特殊制度情境,笔者探讨了经济政策不确定性、行业周期性对企业现金持有动态调整的影响机制。研究发现:经济政策不确定性越大,企业现金调整速度越快,且这种效应在不同产权性质、投资水平、经营现金流及偿债水平的企业中具有显著差异。进一步,与宏观经济波动紧密相关的周期性行业企业在经济政策不确定性较大时的现金调整速度明显快于非周期性行业企业;深入细分行业特征后发现,在行业周期性与行业竞争度组成的象限中,周期性且竞争激烈行业的企业在经济政策不确定性较大时表现出了最快的现金调整速度,其平均调整半周期为0.957年。

Macroeconomy and industry characteristic are key influence factors of enterprises＇ financial poli-cy. Under Chinese unique institutional context, this paper investigates the influence mechanism of economic policyuncertainty, industry periodicity on firms＇ dynamic cash holdings adjustment. Our findings show that greater eco-nomic policy uncertainty gives rises to higher speed of cash holdings adjustment, and such effect is of great differ-ence in firms that exhibit different ownership nature of ultimate controller, investment level, cash flow and solvencylevel. Further test shows that firms in periodical industries that are closely related with macro - economic fluctuationhave faster cash adjustment speed in face of greater policy uncertainty environment compared with firms in non - pe-riodical industries. After further considering industry characteristic, this paper finds that in the quadrant formed bydifferent industry periodicity and competitiveness, when firms are in periodical and less concentrated industries, thespeed reaches the highest, whose average half adjustment period is 0. 957 year.