预防性储蓄动机的时序变化及其影响因素差异——基于中国城镇居民不同收入阶层视角

The Timing Changes of Precautionary-savings Motive and Its Influencing Factors:Based on the Perspective of Chinese Urban Residents in Different Income Groups

笔者首先运用状态空间模型和卡尔曼滤波方法估测了1986—2012年我国不同收入阶层的城镇居民之预防性储蓄动机强度的时序变化,进而对各收入阶层的预防性储蓄动机的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,不同收入阶层的城镇居民均存在着较强的预防性储蓄动机,中等及中等偏下收入阶层的城镇居民之预防性储蓄动机最强,中等偏上与高收入阶层的最弱,低收入阶层的居中,并且不同收入阶层的预防性储蓄动机强度在整体上均呈现增强态势。收入不确定性、制度风险、通货膨胀等成了各个收入阶层城镇居民的预防性储蓄行为的重要影响因素,但其影响程度在不同收入阶层间具有明显的差异性。

This paper firstly uses the state space model and the method of kalman filter to estimate the Chineseurban residents＇ timing changes of precautionary savings motive from 1986 to 2012, which is based on the perspec-tive of different income groups. Then, it gives an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of the different in-come groups＇ precautionary savings motive. The results show that every income groups＇ precautionary savings motiveis strong, and the upper middle and high income groupts are lowest, the low income group is between the two par-ties, and the intensity of all the income groups＇ precautionary savings motive presents increasing trend. The incomeuncertainty, system risk and inflation become important factors of the different income groups＇ precautionary savingsbehavior, but theses influence degree has obvious difference between the different income groups.