产流误差比例系数的系统响应修正方法

Runoff error proportionality coefficient correction method based on system response

为提高洪水预报的精度以及修正的稳定性,在产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法的基础上,提出了产流比例系数的系统响应修正方法。将产流系列按照一定原则分成若干组,假定每组存在系统误差,通过引入一个比例系数来表示,应用系统响应理论,选择适当的参数率定方法确定最优比例系数,进而对时段产流量分组进行修正。将产流误差比例系数的系统响应修正方法应用于滩坑流域,并与产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法相比较,结果显示,对于流域的17场历史洪水,二者均能提高洪水预报的精度,但前者的修正效果更好,修正稳定性更强,适用范围更广。

To improve the accuracy and stability of the real-time flood forecasting, a new error correction method is introduced. The new method is based on another named runoff error correction based on dynamic system response curve （DSRC）. And it is named as runoff error proportionality coefficient correction method based on system response （ REPC）. In this method, calculated runoff series is divided into some shorter ones according to certain principle. System errors are assumed to occur in each series, and the errors can be expressed by a proportionality coefficient. The proportionality coefficient can be estimated by choosing the appropriate parameters of the model derived from the system response. REPC method, as well as DSRC method, is applied in Tankeng basin. The results indicate that both methods can improve the accuracy of the real-time flood forecasting, but REPC method performs better results with regard to the accuracy, the stability and the range. With the sound physical laws and the long forecasting, the method introduced in this paper is well worthy of further applications.