金砖国家经济周期协动的区制依赖性分析——基于Markov区制转移模型的实证研究

An Analysis of BRICS Countries' Economic Cycle Co-movement from the Perspective of Regime Dependence——An Empirical Study Based on Markov Regime-switching Model

笔者基于1997年～2012年季度经济总量数据，运用Markov区制转移模型对金砖国家经济周期协动进行研究。结果表明：金砖国家经济周期在不同的经济周期区制内表现出不同的协动性，具有从区制1到区制3逐渐增强的区制依赖特点；金砖国家各区制内发展速度位次相对稳定；中国经济对金砖国家经济协动在“共同低速增长”和“共同高速增长”区制内有明显的积极影响，在“共同中速增长”区制内有消极影响。

With the seasonal GDP data from 1997 to 2012, the paper studies the co-movement of economic cycle in BRICS countries by Markov regime-switching model. It finds that there is an increase in the co-movement in BRICS countries from regime 1 to regime 3. The results show that China＇ s economy has an obvious positive impact in the common low-speed growth regime and common high- speed growth regime.