新生代流动人口初婚年龄及其影响因素分析——基于全国流动人口动态监测调查数据

Analysis on the Age of First Marriage of New Generation Floating Population and its' Determinant:Based on the Floating Population Dynamic Monitoring Data

通过2013年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,运用统计分析和多元回归模型考察了新生代流动人口初婚年龄及其影响因素。近年来新生代流动人口初婚年龄不断增加,人口流动之后推迟了初婚年龄。实证结果显示,新生代流动人口初婚年龄特征表现为男高女低、农业户口低于非农业户口、少数民族高于汉族的特点,且随着自身和配偶教育程度提高而推迟;新生代流动人口跨省通婚的,其初婚年龄高于省内通婚的。在就业特征方面表现为经济能力较强者可能会比经济能力差者初婚年龄来得低。此外,乡城流动的新生代流动人口初婚年龄更多受通婚圈、配偶教育等社会融合因素的影响,而城城流动的新生代流动人口更多受自身教育水平、经济条件等因素的影响。

Marriage is the foundation of family, which affects the population reproduction. Using the data from the Floating Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey, this paper analysis the age of first marriage （AFM） of new generation floating population and its＇ determinant by Statistical analysis and multiple regression model. The AFM of new generation floating population increases in recent years, and it delays after floating. The results show： the AFM of new generation floating population is higher for male, non - agriculture hukou, minority, trans - marriage circle, low level of economic, and increases as rising education level of oneself and his mate. The factors of social integration, such as intermarriage circle, mate, play a more important role on the new generation floating population of rural to urban, while the new generation floating population of urban to urban are more affected by self education level, economic factors.