出口与女性的劳动参与率——基于中国工业企业数据的研究

Export and Female Labor Force Participation:A research based on Chinese industry firm data

在中国人口结构转变、人口红利正逐步消失的背景下,研究中国制造业企业出口对女性劳动参与率的影响,探讨中国出口导向的增长方式是否会加剧人口红利的消失、进而对经济增长造成不利的影响,有着极为重要的理论与现实意义。理论上,出口的扩张能够影响劳动力市场上的性别就业供给,或者通过改变行业的生产和资源的重新分配来影响劳动力的性别构成,最终影响女性的劳动参与率。使用2004年中国工业企业数据库的企业层面数据,经验研究发现,随着出口密度的增加,女性劳动参与率显著增大。在解决内生性、改变变量定义及更换样本估计之后,研究结论均较为稳健。由于女性劳动参与率与妇女生育率之间可能存在的负向关系,说明出口在提高女性劳动参与率的同时,也降低了妇女的生育率,出口会对一国人口结构的转变产生影响。因此,中国转变出口导向型发展模式的政策意蕴,不仅有助于提升中国经济增长的质量,还将有助于缓解人口红利逐步消失的负面影响。这意味着,除了对计划生育政策进行调整之外,通过调整出口导向型的贸易发展方式,也是缓解中国人口困境的一个渠道。

The demographic dividend of China is disappearing with the change of demographic structure. Considering whether Chinese export-oriented growth can aggravate the the phenomenon and then have an adverse effect on economic growth,this paper explores the impact of export of female labor force from Chinese manufacturing firms. To begin with,this paper introduces the related literatures about the impact of export on female labor force participation and reorganizes the mechanism of the impact. It uses the 2004 Chinese manufacturing firm-level data and makes a comprehensive description, which shows apparently the relationship between the export of Chinese manufacturing firms and the female labor force participation. Furthermore, the empirical analysis suggests that female labor force participation increases with the export intensity. The results are very robust after resolving the endogenous problem, redefining the meaning of export and changing samples. Meanwhile, it can be deduced for the negative relation between female labor force participation and fertility, which indicates that female labor force participation increasing with export can lower fertility rate in China. Therefore, changing the exportled growth mode can not only be beneficial to improving the quality of Chinese economic growth, but also contributing to alle- viating the adverse impact of the gradual disappearance of China＇s demographic dividend.