留守家庭对外出劳动力的回流期望研究

Expectation of Left-Behind Families for Return of Migrant Workers

基于2013年我国西部四省七村的留守家庭问卷调查,对影响留守家庭对外出劳动力的回流期望的因素进行了实证分析。结果显示留守家庭的回流期望与外出劳动力的回流意愿整体上趋于一致,局部上存在差异。研究发现留守人口的年龄、受教育程度,留守家庭的土地面积、相对贫困,外出人口的亲属关系、打工地、打工时长、回家时长、购房情况对回流期望有显著影响,验证了新迁移经济学的部分假设。在社会转型的关键时期,要关注农村留守家庭的生活状况,通过改革土地制度、降低相对贫困、加强人口往来等措施可以有效提高留守家庭的回流期望,从而拉动农村外出劳动力主动回乡就业,加快西部城镇化与新农村建设的步伐。

On the basis of the questionnaires on left-behind families in seven villages of four provinces in Western China in 2013, this study makes an empirical analysis of the factors that would influence the expectation of left-behind families for the return of migrant workers by binary logistic regression. In analyzing the data, the study verifies the consistency between the expectation and the return willingness,despite divergence in a small part. The exploration of the influencing factors is based on the perspective of left-behind families. It is then found finds that the age and the level of education,as well as the acreage and relative poverty of left-behind families, the relationship with relatives, work places, work hours, hours of going home and the state of home purchase of migrant workers have great influence on their return, a fact that verifies part of the hypothesis of The New Economics of Labor Migration. As a consequence,during the key period of social transformation,the living con ditions of left-behind families should be given great attention;and by taking measures such as reforming land systems, reducing relative poverty and strengthening population intercourse, the satisfaction of such expectation will be enhanced;thus, promoting the employment of migrant workers with the initiative return and speeding up rural urbanization and construction of new countryside in the Western China is an urgent matter to concern.