公共资本、税收与长期经济增长

Public Capital,Tax and Long-run Economic Growth

基于两部门增长模型,通过参数化和数值模拟估算了我国税收政策的宏观经济效应及公共资本拥挤性、资本利用效率和外部性对税收政策效应的影响。研究表明,降低资本所得税更有利于经济增长和福利水平改善;基于福利最大化视角,应对劳动进行补贴,对资本减税;公共资本拥挤性强化了资本所得税的减税效应,但不利于福利水平改善,对劳动所得税减税效应影响不大;公共部门资本生产效率和公共资本外部性对减税政策效应具有非对称性影响。

Based on a growth model of two sectors ,taking the economy of China as the sample economy ,this paper first estimates the macroeconomic effects of tax policy ,then analysis the effects of congestion of public capital , the efficiency of public sector and externality of public capital on the tax policy by simulating a calibrated economy.We found that reducing the capital income tax is better for per capita private capital and public capital stock , per capita consumption and output growth and welfare improvement .From the perspective of welfare maximization , we should deal with the labor subsidies , but tax cuts for the capital .If the tax is levied in accordance with the optimal labor income tax rate , the per capita output increased 1.3 times.If the tax is levied in accordance with the optimal capital income tax rate , we can make the output per capita increased 5 times,and the welfare level increased by 62%.Congestion of public capital can strengthen the effects of capital income tax cuts ,but not conducive to improving the welfare level ,play little effect on the labor income tax cuts .The efficiency of public sector and externality of public capital has an asymmetrical influence on tax policy ,drop of the capital efficiency in public sector impact the tax policy more , the drop of the externality of public capital produces a larger impact on welfare ,while the increase of it has a larger effect on the other variables .