中国对外直接投资区位选择的决定因素:制度、税负和资源禀赋

The Determinants of Location Choices of China's ODI:Institutions,Taxations and Resources

中国目前已经成为世界第三大对外直接投资(ODI)输出国。东道国(或地区)的不同制度维度是如何影响中国ODI的区位选择的?本文以中国2002-2011年间在全球范围内进行的842笔对外直接投资作为样本,研究了东道国的话语权与问责制、政治稳定与杜绝暴力/恐怖主义、政府效率、监管质量、法治水平、腐败控制这六类制度性因素对中国ODI区位选择的影响。本文还讨论了税收(避税)因素和自然资源因素的作用,以及它们与制度因素的交互作用。本文的研究发现,总体而言,与大部分跨国公司不同的是:中国的ODI不太关心对方国家(或地区)的政治制度(话语权与问责制)和政治稳定度,而更关心政府效率、监管质量和腐败控制,并倾向于避开法律体系严格的国家;同时,中国的ODI存在明显的避税和获取资源的动机;东道国的制度质量与避税功能之间存在替代关系。本文的研究有助于理解中国和新兴市场经济体的ODI的决定因素和国际间资本流动的规律。

China has become the third largest source of outward direct investment （ ODI）. This paper studies how institutions in the host countries affect the location choices of China＇s ODI. Based on a deal-level sample from 2002--2011, this paper empirically tests how political institutions, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and corruption control in the host countries affect the location choices of China＇s ODI. On top of these institutional factors, we study the effects of tax evasion and natural resources in host countries, and their interactions with the institutional factors. We find that political institutions in the host countries are not major concerns of the ODI, while government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and corruption control have significant effects on the locations of ODI. And China＇s ODI tend to avoid countries with strict legal system. Tax evasion and resources are also major motives of China＇s ODI. General institutional quality and tax evasion are substitutes in China＇s ODI location decisions.