互联网金融创新与商业银行经济发展的关系研究——基于省级面板数据的因果关系检验

The Causality Test between The Innovation of Internet Finance and The Economic Development of Commercial Banks in China:Based on an Empirical Research with a Panel Data of Provinces

基于我国2007年3月至2014年3月8年间23个省份所构成的省际面板数据,运用单位根检验、协整分析、误差项修正模型等对我国互联网金融创新与商业银行经济发展的长期与短期因果关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,互联网金融创新是未来商业银行经济发展的长期单向原因,并显现出其对传统商业银行金融模式的替代效应,但反之却不成立;二者之间从短期来看,并不具备显著的短期因果关系。

Based on a panel data composed of 23 provinces in China from March 2007 to March 2014 , and using the unit root tests, cointegration analyses and error correction models, the paper investigates the long-term and short-term causality between the innovation of Internet finance and the economic development of commercial bank. The empirical results show that there is an unidirectional long-term causality from the innovation of Internet finance to the economic development of commercial bank while the latter is not the long-term cause of the former in the future, and the innovation of Internet finance has a substitution effect on the traditional financial model; In the short term, there is no significant short-term causality between both of them.