城镇化·工业化与农村金融发展——基于沈阳数据的实证分析

Urbanization,Industrialization,Rural Financial Development—An Empirical Analysis Based on Shenyang data

运用Granger因果关系分析、协整检验方法,对1990～2012年沈阳工业化、城镇化与金融发展之间的互动关系进行实证检验分析.结果表明,沈阳城镇化、工业化与金融发展三者之间在短期和长期内具有不同程度的影响关系,经济工业化的发展大大促进了社会城镇化和整体金融发展;而整个社会金融体系发展有力地支持了城镇化进程,并且金融总量规模发展对城镇化提高的影响要比工业化影响大,但城镇化不是金融发展的直接推动力;金融组织体系效率低,社会储蓄到投资转化率不足是制约城镇化和工业化的障碍.据此,提出完善多元化的投融资体系,提高金融支持的力度;发挥城镇化和工业化的引领作用等策略.

This paper uses Granger causality analysis, cointegration test method and impulse response function, makes empirical analysis onthe interactive relationship among industrialization, urbanization and financial development in Shenyang during 1990 - 2012. The resultsshowed that Shenyang urbanization, industrialization and financial development have different influences in the short and long term relation-ship, economic industrialization development has gready promoted social urbanization and overall financial development; overall social finan-cial system greatly support urbanization process ; the efficiency of financial organization system is low, shortage of conversion rate from socialsavings to investment is the barrier for restricting urbanization and industrialization. Therefore, several strategies were put forward, such asperfecting the diversified investment and financing system, improving financial support, play a leading role of urbanization and industrializa-tion.