中国消费风险分担偏低之谜

What Accounts for Imperfect Consumption Risk Sharing in China

居民部门福利水平,不仅决定于收入与消费的绝对水平,也取决于其波动水平即风险程度。通过金融市场和财政转移支付而实现的收入的交换流通,以降低本地消费与本地产出的相关性分担本地产出波动导致的居民消费的风险。本文计算了1985—2011年中国消费风险分担的趋势,发现中国省级消费风险分担水平偏低而且增加趋势不明显。进一步的研究结果表明,政府为了增加财政收入而采取的地方保护行为,严重抑制了财政转移支付和银行信贷市场在分担消费风险中的作用,直接造成了中国较低的消费风险分担水平。而金融业的国有化,则没有呈现出类似的影响。本文的结论对中国未来统筹区域经济发展和金融业市场化改革有重要的启示意义。

Household welfare relies on both the level consumption and the associated consumption risk. A low correlation between local output and consumption, which can be achieved through channels of the exchange of income, such as capital markets, credit markets and fiscal transfer payments, can share the households＇ consumption risk resulted from the volatility of local output. This study calculates the trend of inter-provincial consumption risk sharing in China from 1985 to 2011. We find that the consumption risk sharing in China is very limited, and the local protectionism motivated by fiscal revenues has significantly impeded risk sharing through fiscal transfer payments and banking credit markets. Further evidence shows that the nationalization of Chinese financial industry hasn＇t shown similar impacts. Our results have valuable implications for financial reforms of China in future.