家庭结构与储蓄率U型之谜

Family Structure and Puzzle of U-shaped Age Saving Profile

中国的家庭储蓄率与户主年龄呈现U型关系,这与生命周期理论预测的倒U型不符,被学术界称为"中国年龄—储蓄率之谜"。本文为其提供了一个解释:在生活成本高昂、养老体系不完善的情况下,低储蓄率的年轻人(老年人)倾向于选择与他们的中年父母(子女)居住在一起,这不仅拉低了中年户主家庭的储蓄率,还提高了其余独立居住的青年户主家庭和老年户主家庭的平均储蓄率,进而使得家庭储蓄率与户主年龄呈现出U型关系。实证研究发现,以家庭为研究对象时户主年龄—家庭储蓄率呈现稳健的U型关系;以个人为研究对象时个人年龄—个人储蓄率则呈现倒U型,与生命周期理论相符;居住成本越高,青年户主家庭的储蓄率越高;养老体系越不完善,老年户主家庭的储蓄率越高。本文的实证研究表明,家庭结构的内生选择是"年龄—储蓄率之谜"产生的重要原因。

In China, household saving rate shows a U-shaped age profile, which is contrary to the prediction of a hump shape in the life-cycle model. We propose an explanation for this puzzle： Young（old） people with lower savingpropensity are more likely to live with their parents（ adult children） ; This drives down the average saving rate of middle-aged families and increases the average saving rate of young and old families who live independently. Empirical findings show that the relationship between household bead＇s age and family saving rate is U-shaped while individual＇s age saving profile is hump- shaped. We also find out that higher living cost increases young household＇s saving rate while imperfect social security system increasesold household＇s saving rate. We conclude that the endogeneity of family structure is an important reason for the U-shaped age profile of household saving rate.