中俄天然气合作的历史经验与未来发展

Historical experience and future development of Sino-Russian gas cooperation

2014年5月,中俄签署经东线向中国供应天然气的长期合同,标志着中俄天然气合作迈入新的阶段。两国从开始天然气谈判到最终签署合同,经历了近二十年的时间。在这一过程中,国际能源市场、俄罗斯的能源战略、中俄两国的天然气市场状况,以及中俄双方对天然气合作的诉求都发生了重大变化,变化趋势成为影响天然气合作的主要因素。本文归纳了中俄天然气谈判的历史进程和时代特征;分析了促使两国签署天然气合同的内外因;阐述了中俄天然气合作未来对国际天然气市场可能产生的影响和合作中仍然存在的问题;并对中俄天然气长期谈判和合作所得到的经验教训和存在的不足进行了反思。

In May 2014 China and Russia signed a 30-year, $400 billion gas deal, marking a new phase in natural gas cooperation between the two. It took almost two decades of bilateral negotiation before final signing of the deal. Meanwhile the international energy market, Russia's energy strategy, the markets for natural gas in both China and Russia and the need for such cooperation by the two sides all changed greatly. Those changing trends were the key factor driving bilateral cooperation. The process of the negotiation as well as the changing features during this period are summarized, the external and internal factors and driving forces behind the deal are analyzed, the impact of the gas deal on the international natural gas market and problems within this cooperation are illustrated, and the experience from this longterm negotiation and cooperation and their shortcomings are reflected on.