中国《页岩气资源/储量计算与评价技术规范》计算方法存在的问题与建议

Problems and recommendations for the Regulation of shale gas resources/reserves estimation in China

页岩气在国际上是重要的后续战略资源。目前中国已进入页岩气的规模勘探和工业试采阶段,并取得了明显成果。然而,因经验不足,致使在2014年6月1日发布实施的《页岩气资源/储量计算与评价技术规范》中,有关页岩气藏地质储量和可采储量的计算方法,存在不正确性和不可靠性,甚至是错误的问题,值得大家关注。由于地质储量和可采储量的计算方法是该技术规范的核心内容,应尽量避免因计算方法带来的评价结果的失误和投资风险,具体来说,该技术规范提出的有关页岩气藏基质吸附气地质储量、裂缝系统自由气地质储量和两者总地质储量的计算方法,以及相应的可采储量计算方法都是不正确的,或者说是错误的。其次是,将汉语拼音字母x,y和z等作为不同储量符号的下角或储量参数符号的下角,均有背于采用英语专业术语字头作为下角的原则。为此,建议针对页岩气藏地质储量和可采储量计算方法及使用符号的科学性和合理性进行技术讨论,考虑制定动态法的计算细则和应用范例,并考虑引入预测模型法和其他方法计算与评价页岩气藏的地质储量和可采储量。

As an important follow-up strategic resource,shale gas is now explored and industrially produced in China,and obvious results have been obtained. However,the inexperience in evaluating the shale gas resources/reserves estimation leads to incorrectness,unreliability and even error in estimating geological and recoverable reserves of shale gas in the Regulation of shale gas resources/reserves estimation published on June 1,2014,which deserves more attention. The core of the regulation is to estimate the reserves of the shale gas,and great importance should be attached to insure its correctness in order to avoid mistake in evaluation results and even investment risk. The estimating method of the adsorption gas reserves in the shale gas reservoir,free gas reserves in fractural system are incorrect and the corresponding estimating method of the recoverable reserves is incorrect or even mistake. Moreover,using the initials of Chinese Pinyin x,y and z as subscript of different symbols is irrational,which doesn't maintain the principle of using English professional terms as the subscript.Existing problems in estimating geological reserves and technical recoverable reserves of shale gas were analyzed. It is suggested to discuss about the estimating method of shale gas reserves and the scientificity and reasonability of its symbols. Also,rules of dynamic estimating methods and application case are recommended. Other methods,such as prediction model,may be introduced at the same time.