江苏省降雨时空分布特征研究

Study on Characteristics for Spatial and Temporal Distribution in Jiangsu Province

根据江苏省13个气象观测站点的分布位置建立泰森多边形,并利用普通克里金插值法和建立的基尼系数降雨分布不均匀性模型,对南京市和江苏省1961—2010年的降雨量、基尼系数和洛伦茨不对称系数的系列进行研究。结果表明:近50年来,江苏省年降雨量在空间上呈现明显的梯度变化,从东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐减少;江苏省年降雨量趋于增加,降雨年内时间分布趋于均匀,较多月份的降雨量占年降雨量的比例增大。雨季月份降雨量较集中,东南部大暴雨发生的频次增加,增大水土流失发生的可能性;非雨季月份降雨量较少,西北部容易造成土壤干旱,对植被生长和生态恢复极为不利。

According to the Tyson polygon to establish distribution position from 13 weather observation stations in Jiangsu Province and using ordinary Kriging interpolation method and the establishment of the Gini coefficient to study rainfall,Gini coefficient and Lorenz asymmetry coefficient series for the Nanjing City and Jiangsu Province. The results showed that in the past 50 years,Jiangsu Province annual rainfall showed obvious gradient change in space,that it has been gradually reducing from the southeast coast to the northwest inland;meanwhile,the annual rainfall in Jiangsu Province tends to increase,rainfall years time distribution is more uniform,month rainfall was accounting for the proportion of the increase of annual rainfall.During the rainy season,rainfall concentrated,Southeast big rainstorm frequency would increase the possibility of soil erosion;non during the rainy season,rainfall was less,northwest easily leads to soil drought,extremely unfavorable for the growth of vegetation and ecological restoration.