三维海洋数值模型在东中国海鲐鱼渔场预报中的应用

Study on the fishing ground forecasting of chub mackerel based on a 3D numerical ocean model in the East China Sea

根据1998-2011年7-12月的东中国海鲐鱼渔业数据,应用数理统计方法对中心渔场作业位置与海区表温的关系进行了定量分析。以北纬32°为界,将东中国海鲐鱼渔场分为北部黄海渔场和南部东海渔场两部分,分别给出了各月份北部和南部渔场的最适表温范围。基于海洋模式ECOM-si建立了东中国海区的三维温盐流数值模型,结合各月份的最适表温数据,初步建立了鲐鱼渔场渔情预报模块。应用此预报模块,对鲐鱼主要作业期(7-12月)的中心渔场位置进行了回报,结果与历史捕捞作业数据符合良好。数值模型结果再现了北部渔场8月份起在黄海深水区周边发展,10月达到最盛,11月渔场位置南移,12月基本位于黄海海盆深水区的过程;以及南部渔场8月最盛,10月起大降,11月和12月远离黑潮主轴西侧海域,西撤至100 m等深线附近的发展过程。结果表明所建立的三维温盐流海洋数值模型和初步建立的渔场、渔情预报模块适用于东中国海重要渔业渔场和渔情的预测、预报应用。

The relationship between central fishing ground and sea surface temperature（ SST） were analyzed quantitatively by a mathematical statistics method,based on the monthly（ from July to December） fishery data of chub mackerel（ Scomber japonica） in the East China Sea from 1998 to 2011. The fishing ground of chub mackerel in the East China Sea was divided into two parts,the northern and southern fishing ground,by a zonal boundary along 32° N,and the optimal SST of each fishing ground was obtained from the result of statistics. Based on the ocean model,ECOM-si,a three dimension（ 3D） numerical model coupled with modules of temperature,salinity and current simulation in the East China Sea was established to do fishing ground forecasting. Using the monthly optimal SST as criterion, the numerical model coupled with a preliminary？ fishing ground forecasting module of chub mackerel. The fishing ground forecasting module successfully demonstrated the position variation of central fishing ground of chub mackerel during July to December,the result agreed well with the historical fishing data. The numerical model reproduced the process of the northern fishing ground developed surrounding deep water of the Yellow Sea since August,covered the maximum area of optimal SST in October,moved southward in November,and occupied the deep water area of the Yellow Sea Basin in December. On the southern fishing ground,maximum area of optimal SST occurred in August,then decreased dramatically in October,and moved from the west side of the Kuroshio mainstream and withdraw westward to near the isobaths of 100 m in November and December. The results show that the3 D numerical model with modules of temperature,salinity and current simulation and the preliminary？ fishing fishery forecasting module could be applied to do studies on fishing ground forecasting of the important fisheries in the East China Sea.