基于关联度分析的工作面动力灾害二级预测

Secondary Prediction of Working Face Dynamic Disasters Based on Relational Grade Analysis

为了提高矿井动力灾害预测的实用性和有效性,在相关煤层动力灾害一级预测的基础上,充分考虑抽采效应和采动工程效应,基于关联度理论预测参数关联度分析与计算,查明特定工作面矿井动力灾害的发生的模式,建立工作面动力灾害二级预测模型,实现了工作面动力灾害进行动态预测。以平顶山十二矿己15-17200工作面为例,分别预测了该工作面在自然状态下、采取瓦斯抽采措施后和工作面推进到停采线时3种情况下发生动力灾害的危险性,并且与实际开采情况进行对比。结果表明,该方法预测矿井动力灾害准确性较高,提高了煤矿生产的安全性与稳定性。

In order to improve the practicability and validity of mine dynamic disaster prediction, on the basis of the primary forecast of related coal seam dynamic disasters, fully considering the extraction effect and the effect of mining engineering, based on the correla- tion analysis and calculation of correlation theory prediction parameters, the model of mine dynamic disasters of specific working face had been found out, the secondary prediction model of working face dynamic disasters was established, the dynamic disasters prediction had been realized. Taking JI15 - 17200 working face in the No. 12 mine of Pingdingshan as the example, the risks of dynamic disaster under the natural condition, taking measures of gas extraction and driving to the stopping line had been respectively predicted while compared with the actual coal mining. The results showed that the method had higher accuracy of mine dynamic disaster prediction, which improved the security and stability of the coal mine production.