GDP波动与物流行业就业关系经济模型仿真

Simulation on Economic Model of Relationship between GDP Fluctuation and Logistics Industry Employment

在经济发展中,随着经济总量GDP情况的不断变化,最为直接的物流行业就业人数会发生较大的波动,物流就业人员数量与GDP数据众多属性都有关联,探索两者的关系十分重要。GDP的波动与物流行业的关系呈现非线性变化,过多的关联和约束条件使得两者的整体关联极其复杂。传统的评估模型以单目标,多约束条件描述这种复杂关联,使得约束条件过多,无法控制建模中的残差,建模结果笼统,模型准确性不高。提出基于多元数据加权均值的GDP与物流就业关系分析模型。根据经济GDP数据与物流行业就业的数据采集时间进行划分,分析数据时域内分析结果残差与关系估计数据的关联性,考虑各种情况下,数据残差波动与关联性的误差比率,根据比率指导建立多元就业数据加权均值模型,通过抑制残差,实现GDP与物流行业就业关系的准确建模。实验结果表明,利用改进方法进行经济危机下GDP与物流行业就业促进之间关系的评估,能够提高评估准确性。

In economic development, as the economic aggregate GDP is constantly changing, the most direct logis- tics industry employment can produce larger fluctuation. Logistics number of employment and GDP data are related to many attributes,it is very important to explore the relationship between the two. The relationship between GDP fluctu- ation and logistics industry presents nonlinear variation, too much relevance and constraint conditions make that the o- verall correlation of both is extremely complex. An analytical model of the relationship between GDP and logistics em- ployment was proposed based on multivariate data weighted average. According to the economic GDP data and the da- ta acquisition time of logistics industry employment, the division was performed, and then the correlation of analysis result residual and relationship estimation data in data time domain was analyzed, and the error ratio of data residual fluctuation and correlation under all circumstances was considered. According to the ratio, the multivariate employ- ment data weighted average model can be established. By inhibiting the residuals, the accurate modeling for relation- ship between GDP and the logistics industry employment was achieved. Experimental results show that the improved method can increase the evaluation accuracy.