黄金市场形势及后期走势分析

Gold market status and analysis of its following trend

2013年金价下跌是长期上涨调整的需要,美国量化宽松货币政策调整、投资银行看空、对冲基金和投资机构集中抛售是造成金价大幅下跌的主要原因。未来金价上涨阻力不容忽视,美国货币政策调整不利于金价上涨,投资机构看空情况下的黄金市场难有好的表现,避险作用削弱情况下地缘政治不会推动金价大幅上涨,黄金市场已经进入熊市。黄金生产成本难以支撑进入熊市的金价上涨,强势美元促使金价走低。未来金价不会呈"V"型或"L"型走势,有可能跌破1 000美元/盎司,并有可能随着美元不断加息走强而持续走低。

Price fall of gold in 2013 is the result of adjustment after a long term rise. Quantitative easing, short view of investment banks, hedging funds and sell-off of gold by institutional investment are the main reasons for the fall. The obstructing factors lying ahead for gold price rise are not to be ignored. The adjustment of currency policy in U. S., the short expectations of institutions hinder price rise while geopolitics under weakened risk evasion conditions is incapable in pushing up gold prices, all of which indicate a bear market for gold. Gold production cost can not contribute to gold price rise in a bear market and a robust U. S. Dollar takes advantage over gold. Future gold price will not follow a ＂V＂ or ＂ L＂ trend and will probably fall below 1 000 dollars per ounce,and is likely to go lower with the rising interest rate of dollars.