湖北省县域经济发展时空差异与空间演化研究

A study on the tempo-spatial disparities and spatial evolution of the country economy development in Hubei Province

选取湖北省县域2001年～2012年份人均GDP数据,基于ArcGIS9.3空间分析模块,采用相对发展率、锡尔系数、加权变异系数、全局空间自相关Moran＆#39;s I指数、Getis-Ord Gi＊指数、标准差椭圆等方法对湖北省县域经济发展空间差异与演化进行定量测度与分析.结果表明：（1）湖北省县域经济发展的绝对差异较大,且经济发展具有明显的地带性;其相对差异在波动中递减,且各地经济运行较为平稳.（2）湖北省县域经济发展存在显著的空间正相关,并随着年份的增长其空间正相关性也在波动中加强,这表明湖北省县域经济发展过程中其相邻县市区之间的相关性随着年份的增加也越来越强,同时也说明各县域经济发展的差异是逐渐趋于收敛的.（3）湖北省县域经济呈现出“西低东高”、“中部高,周边低”的空间分布格局,总体上热点地区基本集中于鄂东环武汉城市圈,且从年份的变化来看,热点地区有向荆襄宜城市群地区转移的趋势;而冷点地区则基本位于鄂西北、鄂西南、鄂东北、鄂东南山区,且随着年份的增加,热点地区增多,冷点地区减少,反映了湖北省县域经济整体趋好.（4）湖北省县域经济发展基本呈现西北-东南格局,12年间其重心东西移动的距离大于南北方向的距离,且2005年～2008年的偏移速度快于其他年份.

By using the per capita GDP from 200142012 of the counties in Hubei province and comprehensively using the methods such as Nieh, Theil, Weighted coefficient of variation, Moran＇s I and Getis-Ord Gi index and Standard Deviation Ellipse （SDE）, this paper analyzes and forecasts the evolution of the county economy of Hubei province on AreGIS 9.3. The following four conclusions have been drawn from the analysis： 1） the absolute differences of the economic development among the counties were extremely significant and the county economic development was of various zonality, while the relative differences of the economic development among the counties have gradually decreased; 2） there was a strong spatial autocorrelation among the economic development of the counties and the autocorrelation have enhanced over time, indicating that the differences of the economic development among the counties have converged; 3） the county economy of Hubei province shows a spatial pattern of ＂low in west and high in east＂ and ＂high in middle and low in surrounding＂, with the hotspots concentrating around Wuhan city in east of Hubei province and having a trend of moving to the west of Hubei province and increasing over time, while the cold areas distributing in the marginal areas such as the northwest, southwest, northeast and southeast areas of Hubei province and decreasing over time, reflecting that the county economy of Hubei province is getting better; 4） the spatial distribution of the county economy presents a ＂northwest- southeast＂ pattern, with the distance of the economic gravity center moving from east to west greater than that from north to south in the twelve years, and the moving distance from 2005--2008 being the larger than that of other years.