中国暴雨洪涝灾害的暴露度与脆弱性时空变化特征

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Exposure and Vulnerability of Flood Disaster in China

利用1984—2012年中国暴雨洪涝灾害灾情和社会经济数据,从灾害暴露范围、人口暴露度、经济暴露度和农作物暴露度4个方面分析了灾害暴露度的特征,从人口脆弱性和经济脆弱性两方面分析了灾害脆弱性特征。研究表明:1984—2012年,中国暴雨洪涝灾害年平均暴露范围、人口暴露度、经济暴露度和农作物暴露度分别为9.37万km^2、126人/km^2、149万元/km^2和1.53亿hm^2,暴露度总体呈显著增加趋势,高暴露区域主要分布在沿海省(市);人口脆弱性显著增大,但经济脆弱性有逐渐减小的趋势,灾害脆弱性高值区主要分布在长江中游沿岸的湖南、安徽、重庆、江西、湖北等省(市),上海、北京、天津为灾害脆弱性最低的区域。

Using flood disaster historical data and social economic data in China for the period 1984-2012, the characteristics of disaster exposure were analyzed from the scope of disaster exposure, population exposure, economy exposure and crop exposure, and those of disaster vulnerability were analyzed from two aspects of population vulnerability and economy vulnerability. The results show that from 1984 to 2012, the average scope of disaster exposure, population exposure, economy exposure and crop exposure was respectively 93700 km2, 126 person/km2, RMB 1.49 million/km2 and 153 million hm2. The level of exposure significantly increased overall, the areas with the highest exposure were mainly distributed in the coastal provinces （municipalities）. Significant increase trend was found for population vulnerability, but economy vulnerability had a gradually-decreasing trend. The highest level of disaster vulnerability were mainly distributed in Hunan, Anhui, Chongqing, Jiangxi and Hubei provinces （municipalities） along the coast in the middle reach of Yangtze River, and Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin are areas with the lowest level of disaster vulnerability. High vulnerable areas of flood disaster are also the most prone areas of flood disaster in China, which no doubt become high risk areas of flood disaster. Therefore, as far as the design and implementation of strategies and policies for adaptation and disaster risk management are concerned, more attention should be paid to these regions to reduce the vulnerability and exposure, and to improve the resilience towards the adverse effects of flood disaster, so as to promote the sustainable development of society and economy. Key words