东北地区经济增长的时空差异和演化趋势

Temporal and spatial differences in regional economic growth and evolution trend estimates of Northeast China

以东北地区36个地级市为研究对象,从时间、空间两个维度对其经济增长的差异性及其演化趋势进行测算与分析.通过标准差、变异系数对1998—2012年东北地区经济增长的差异程度测算结果表明:15年间东北地区经济总量增长较快,36个地级城市之间经济增长的绝对差异逐年加大,相对差异在波动中不断减小;相对发展率的东北地区区域经济增长空间特征分析显示:相对发展率高的城市主要位于辽宁、吉林两省;运用Theil指数对经济增长差异驱动力分析表明:区内差异的贡献率在地区总差异、区域间差异、区域内差异等三要素中最大;采用R/S分析法对未来15年地区经济增长的差异性演化预测显示:东北地区经济增长的差异性在2013—2027年间仍将呈波动递减趋势,但后期递减的趋势会由较弱趋向平稳.

Taking the 36 cities in northeast area as the research object to study the changes of eco‐nomic growth difference from the two angles of temporal and spatial and its evolution trend .To measure the degree of economic grow th difference in northeast area from 1998 to 2012 by using the standard deviation and coefficient of variation .The data shows that the economy in northeast area grows faster in 15 years ,the area absolute difference increased year by year ,but the relative differ‐ence decreased in the volatility .Relative rate of development of regional economic grow th spatial characteristics analysis shows that the relatively high development rate cities are mainly in the two provinces of Liaoning and Jilin .To study the driving force of the economic growth difference by com‐bining the Theil index ,testifying that the region difference is the main driving force to influence the degree of the regional economic difference .At last ,to predict the changes of the northeast area eco‐nomic growth difference in the next 15 years by using R/S analysis .The result shows that the eco‐nomic growth difference in northeast area presents the trend of wave decreasing from 2013 to 2027 , but the late descending trend is weak and close to steady .