吉林省白城市生态系统服务价值预测研究

Forecast of ecosystem services value in Baicheng City,Jilin Province

以吉林西部白城市为研究区,利用2000,2010,2014年3期TM/LOI遥感影像,采用人机交互解译方式提取各期土地利用信息,通过空间分析与统计分析确定2000—2010年土地利用类型面积转移情况,并运用CA-Markov模型对2020年的土地利用情景进行预测。参照修订后的中国陆地生态系统单位面积服务价值表,对研究区未来生态系统服务价值进行预测估算。结果表明:到2020年,白城市土地利用类型将发生较大变化,旱田、水田、林地、草地和建筑用地面积呈增加趋势,其中,旱田增幅最大,水域、湿地和未利用地面积呈减少趋势。生态系统服务价值减少不显著,预计由2010年的50.21×108元减少到2020年的49.19×108元。精度检验及敏感性分析表明,研究结果可信。本研究可为生态系统服务价值预测提供方法,对区域可持续发展亦具有重要意义。

Taking Baicheng,the western city in Jilin Province as study area,the present study used 2000,2010 and2014 TM / LOI remote sensing images and applied human-computer interaction interpreting technology to extract land use information. The shifting area between different land use types were determined from 2000 to 2010 by spatial and statistical analysis,and the land use situation in 2020 was also predicted by the CA-Markov model based on the three series remote sensing images. Referring to the revised Chinese terrestrial ecosystems per unit area service value table,the future ecosystem service value of the study area was estimated. It was shown that the land use types will undergo significant changes by 2020 in Baicheng. The area of dry land,paddy fields,woodland,grassland and construction land increased,while,the wetlands and unused land area exhibited a decreasing trend. There was no significant change in the value of ecosystem services from 2010 to 2020. It was slightly reduced from 50. 21 × 10^8 yuan in 2010 to 49. 19 × 10^8 yuan in 2020. The accuracy testing and sensitivity analysis verified the reliability of the present study. Thus,the present study would not only provide new methods for the forecast of ecosystem services value,but also have great significance to the regional sustainable development.