京津冀城市群未来发展情景气候效应模拟

Climate effects simulation of future development prospects of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Megapolis area

应用包含城市冠层模式的中尺度气象模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting),基于Landsat TM卫星提取的高分辨率下垫面数据集对京津冀地区2008年夏季进行了高分辨数值模拟试验,分析了京津冀城市群不同发展情景的气候效应及其差异.结果表明:1)不同的城市布局对区域气候的影响较明显,较小的城市分布差异可导致相对较大范围的气候差异;2)京津冀城市群不同发展情景对区域气候的影响各不相同,集中式发展情景的气候效应最强,均衡式发展、串珠式发展次之,等级发育模型的气候效应相对最弱;3)城市发展对气温的影响在夜间比白天更明显,热岛在夜间最强,范围大,但影响的高度较低,白天反之,并导致区域内逆温层强度减弱,对风和湿度的影响则是白天比夜间更明显;4)城市化主要影响降水分布,雨岛为多中心结构,主体位于城市下风向边缘区.城市化可能导致弱降水事件减少,对较强降水则可能有增加效应.

Based on a high-resolution underlying surface GIS dataset that extracted from the Landsat TM,a high-resolution simulation experiment by using the Weather Research Forecasting（WRF/NCAR）numerical model coupled with Urban Canopy Model was conducted to analyze summer climate effects and its differences of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megapolis area under different development prospects.The results showed that,1 ）City layout impacted regional climate obviously,and small differences of city layout would reduced on climate differences of larger area;2） Different development prospects of megapolis area had different effects on regional climate,in addition,the strongest climate effects would caused by centralized development model,then balanced development and bead type development model would resulted in stronger climate effects,and grade development model would produce a relatively weak climate effect;3）That urban development influencing on air temperature was more obviously in the night than daytime;Urban heat island was strongest in the night which influenced on larger area but lower height;however,it is on the contrary during the daytime that made the intensity of inversion layer weaken;moreover,that phenomenon of wind and relative humidity impacted by urban development was more clearly in the daytime than night.4）Urbanization was mainly influence on precipitation distribution;moreover,Rain Island was multicenter structure and principal part mainly located on the fringe of city downwind.Urbanization may cause frequency decrease of weak precipitation,but the average rainfall intensity would increase,on the contrary,frequency of strong precipitation may increase but rainfall intensity weakened.