京津冀城市群高温灾害风险区划研究

The study of high temperature disaster risk zoning in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

本文利用175个气象站观测数据和社会经济资料,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、抗灾能力四个方面研究了京津冀城市群高温灾害风险,结果表明:京津冀城市群高温频次呈南部高、北部低以及平原地区高、山区低的空间分布特征,频次最高区域位于石家庄和衡水以南、邯郸以北地区,北部的承德、张家口和秦皇岛地区高温频次最低;致灾因子高危险区和孕灾环境高敏感区主要分布在河北省南部,承灾体高易损区主要位于大型城市,经济发达的城区抗灾能力较强,抗灾能力风险较低;京津冀城市群高温灾害综合风险区划呈南高北低特征,高风险区集中在河北中南部及北京和天津的市区,河北中部及邻近北京、天津地区则为次高风险区和中等风险区,河北北部、西北部和东北部多为低风险区和较低风险区.

In recent years,climate change has become a hot topic and which was being researched by many atmospheric scientists.Meanwhile,climate change has caused many extreme weather and climate events,such as the high temperature disaster,which was increasing obviously and could lead to adverse impacts on urban safety, economic development and human health.Therefore,carrying out the risk zoning research is becoming more and more important and indispensable.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is one of the most important regions in China,where often affected by meteorological disaster,especially summer high temperature and hot wave.In this paper,we use the data of 175 meteorological observations and socio-economic material to research and analyze the high temperature disaster risk in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.Results show that：the high temperature frequency is higher in the south and plains,while it is lower in the north and mountains.The area between Shijiazhuang,Hengshui and Handan has the highest frequency.However,in the northern part of Hebei Province,such as Chengde,Zhangj iakou and Qinhuangdao has the lowest probability for high temperature event.The regions where the disaster factors and environments are the most sensitive mainly located in the south of Hebei,as while as,the most vulnerable regions of bearing body mainly distributed in large cities.The developed regions have greater capacity in resisting high temperature disaster,and their risk index is lower.The integrated risk zoning of high temperature disaster in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is characterized that it is higher in the south and lower in the north,the highest-risk areas concentrated in the southern Hebei and the urban areas of Beijing and Tianjin,meanwhile,they are the higher-risk or moderate-risk areas in the central of Hebei and the neighboring regions of Beij ing and Tianj in.While,in the north,northwest and northeast,they are the lowest-risk or lower-risk areas.Comprehensive analyzing high temperature risk regional differences and researching the zoning method in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration can provide a scientific basis and reference for other meteorological disaster evaluation.