1968—2009年广西甘蔗需水量与播种面积时空变异特征研究

Spatiotemporal variation of water requirement and sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi from 1968 to 2009

为了解广西甘蔗近几十年来需水量与播种面积的时空变异特征，并揭示其变异规律，结合广西气象数据与甘蔗作物数据等，利用作物系数法与区域重心研究方法对广西1968--2009年甘蔗需水量与播种面积时间序列变化、空间分布、变异系数及重心迁移等进行分析。结果表明：42年中，甘蔗需水量呈明显上升变化趋势，2009年甘蔗需水量达到近160亿m3。需水量变异系数在1．2～2之间波动；播种面积与需水量的时间变化曲线吻合，呈上升变化趋势，变异系数在1．2～1．8之间波动。甘蔗播种面积与需水量重心分布在区域几何重心南部，偏移大致73km，散布于来宾市辖区、武鸣、宾阳、南宁市辖区境内。播种面积重心向南、向西北年均迁移8km，2009年位于武鸣县境内：需水量重心向南、向西年均迁移5．7km，2009年位于武鸣县境内。2009年，甘蔗需水量达到水资源总量的10．74％，播种面积达到总耕地面积的23．92％。因此应控制甘蔗播种面积，优化农作物布局，合理利用广西水资源特点进行灌溉。

In order to know the spatiotemporal variation and its regularities of water requirement and sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi province, the methods of time series, spatial distribution, crop coefficients approach and the center of gravity were used in the article, and chose meteorological and sown area data of Guangxi in 1968-2009, 42 years in total. The results showed that, water requirement of sugarcane kept rising through 42 years, reached to 16 billion cubic meters. Water requirement variation coefficients varied from 1.2 to 2, and sown area variation coefficients varie from 1.2 to 1.8. The center of gravity of sown area and water requirement located at the south of geometric center, for a distance about 73 kilometers, interspersing among LaiBin, Wuming, Binyang, Nanning cities and countries, of which, the center of gravity of sown area migrated 8 kilometers per year to southward and southwestward. However, the water requirement was 5.7 kilometers per year to southward and westward. They both located at Binyang in 2009. Water requirement of sugarcane has reached 10.74 percent of water resource in 2009, and its sown area to 23.92 percent of agricultural acreage. The next step, sown area of sugarcane should be controlled, industrial distribution should be optimized, the utilization of water resources should be allocated more reasonable.