我国耕地保护绩效定量研究

Quantitative study on performance of cultivated land protection in China

根据修正后的耕地面积数据(1978—2012年)和耕地保护相关的经济社会因素,构建耕地数量变化的多元线性回归模型,在对耕地保护政策发展历程、现有体系分析的基础上,依据该模型对我国35年来耕地保护政策的绩效进行了分析。结果显示,我国耕地保护政策绩效显著,35年共遏制耕地减少面积250.96万hm2,遏制耕地减少贡献率达17.35%;耕地保护政策绩效有着明显的时间差异性,不同阶段政策遏制耕地减少的贡献率差异明显,但在耕地保护政策发展的4个阶段,政策遏制耕地减少的贡献率是逐渐上升的,说明耕地保护政策在不断的发展,耕地保护政策的绩效在逐渐发挥。在2003—2012年阶段,耕地减少面积逐渐稳定并降至多年来的最低点,同时政策遏制耕地减少的贡献率达到峰值,表明耕地数量保护的目标绩效显著,达到了顶峰。建议未来的耕地保护工作需要突出耕地的质量建设和生态建设两个着重点。

According the corrected data of cultivated land in 1978-2012 and the economic-social factors associated with cultivated land protection, this paper established a multiply linear regression model about the change of cultivated land data. Based on analyzing the development process and the existing system of cultivated land protection policies, the performance of cultivated land protection policies for 35 years was analyzed by the model, to provide a reference for completing cultivated land protection policies in China. The results showed that the performance of cultivated land protection policies was significant, and the policies contained the area 250.96×104 hm2 and distribution rate 17.35% of cultivated land reduction. The performance of cultivated land protection policies had significant time difference, the distribution rate of the policies to contain cultivated land reduction was significantly different in different stages. However, the distribution rate of the policies was gradually rising in the four stages of the development process for cultivated land protection policies. It indicated that cultivated land protection policies were in constant development, and the performance of which played gradually. In 2003-2012, the reduction of cultivated land fell to the lowest point and stabilized gradually. While the distribution rate of the policies achieved a peak. In the future, the work of cultivated land protection needs to highlight two emphases including quality and ecological construction.