中国直辖市经济增长的实证分析——基于北京、天津、上海面板数据的分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Municipalities' Economic Growth in China——Based on the Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai's Panel Data Analysis

以卢卡斯的"内生增长"模型为理论基础,选取北京、天津和上海三个直辖市的时间序列数据,利用面板数据模型方法,对其在经济发展过程中存在的不足及经济结构做出的调整进行综合性与对比性的分析。实证结果表明,我国直辖市现阶段还是以粗犷的经济增长方式为主,科学技术因素在经济增长中的作用还很小;第三产业在经济总量中所占比例越来越大,但是对经济增长的贡献率相对较小。

The authors of this paper,with Lucas’s “endogenous growth”model as the theoretical basis,the data of Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai as research subjects and panel data model as the research approach,make a comprehensive and comparative analysis of the deficiencies in the process of their economic development and the adjustment of the economic structure.The results show that municipalities have rough economic growth mode at present stage,science and technol-ogy play a minor role in economic growth and the proportion of the third industry in the economy is lager and larger,but its contribution rate to economic growth is relatively small.